Thailand auto production

Thailand's automobile industry is expected to
achieve its 2009 sales target as it sold more new vehicles for a third
consecutive month in November on the back of an improving economy and
higher demand from farmers, the local unit of Toyota Motor Corp.
(7203.TO) said Wednesday. With December historically the strongest month
for vehicle sales and as the economy continues to recover, the industry
is likely to meet its 2009 sales target of 520,000 units, the company
said in a statement. Sales rose 23.8% from a year earlier in November to
57,031 units, following an 8.8% gain in October, said Toyota, which
compiles figures for the industry. During the January to November
period, new car and truck sales fell 14.3% to 476,786 units. In November,
passenger car sales were up 32.3% to 24,054 units, it said. Toyota had
the largest market share of the segment at 41.7%, while Honda Motor Co.
(7267.TO) had 38.9%. Sales of commercial vehicles, including one-ton
pickup trucks, rose 18.2% to 32,977 units with Toyota grabbing 44.1% of
the market while Isuzu Motors Ltd. (7202.TO) had a 33.6% share, as
stronger agricultural product prices prompted farmers to buy or upgrade
their vehicles.

HDB affordability

Mortgage to annual salary ratio of 30% - not a good indicator
Bcos pple who cannot afford flats are not captured

Also loan tenure is 30 yr
About 56% of all HDB buyers take 30 yr loan

Price to income ratio
4 rm
2000 4.7
2009 5.5

5 rm
2000 5
2009 5.6

Global average 7-9x

HDB flats have become less affordable in the past 9 yrs but still more affordable vs global average.

Who is driving up HDB prices?

PR buys 20% of all HDB resale flats

23,000 HDB flats are rented out illegally (est)

Salary: Singapore vs Asia Pacific

Pakistan 9.6%
Vietnam 8.5%
India 8%
Singapore 2.8% (No.7 out of 19)
HK 2.3%
NZ 2.2%
Japan 1.9%
Average 4.8%

Salary freeze ratio
2009 50%
2010 16%

Resignation rate
2008 16.7%
2009 6.2%

HDB new flats

HDB new flats
2007 2,000
2008 8,000+
2009 8,000+

There are roughly 24,000 marriages in Sg every year

Median selling prices
3 rm $240k
4 rm $320k
5 rm $380k

80% of households qualifies for grant

Orchard Road

7 mn tourist in 2008

8mn sqf of retail space of which
1.2mn sqf are new retails

HDB rental

'The highest you can fetch in rent for an HDB flat in a good location is probably $2,000 plus. Any higher, people will go to condos,' ERA agent

HDB figures show that a three-room flat in Ang Mo Kio, Jurong West or Serangoon typically fetched rent of about $1,400 a month in the second quarter of in 2009.

Military Spending

US 607bn (41% of world total)
China 85bn (5.8%)
France 65.7bn (4.5%)
Britain 65.4bn (4.5%)
Russia 58bn (4%)

Per Person

Israel $2300 (total 16.2bn)
US $1900 (607bn)
Oman $1700 (4.5bn)
Singapore $1700 (7.5bn)
Kuwait $1600 (4.7bn)
S. Arabia $1500 (38.2bn)
Norway $1250 (5.9bn)
Greece $1100 (12.6bn)
Britain $1050 (65.3bn)
France $1050 (65.7bn)

Total global military spending $1.46trn (4% increase YoY)

Reported by Swedish thinktank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Prime Grade A Office Rental and Vacancy Rate

Formidable Apple

8% of all computer users are Mac users

10 mn Imac sold in 2008
54mn Ipod sold in 2008
12 mn Iphone sold in 2008

Sg deposits

S$150bn in banks in SG
Reserves being unlock to cover potentially all withdrawals

Sexually active teens

Singapore 14-19 years old - 8%
US 15-19 years old - 46%!

Survey of 4000 students in Sg done in 2006, US 2002

China poverty

20% of Chinese living in poverty ie less than $1 per day
A huge drop from 80% in 1981 though

Retail rental in Singapore

Location 2005 2008
Orchard (high end eg Paragon) $35-56psf $50-80psf
Orchard (mid eg Taka) $28-35psf $30-50psf
Orchard (low eg Far East) $3.6-31.5psf $4-35psf
Suntec and Marina $16-20psf $20-25psf
Suburban $2.6-6.8psf $3-8psf

Monthly breakeven revenue
Orchard $80k
Suntec $30k
Surban $8k

Singapore Reserves

Figures in USD
1965 1bn
1981 15bn
1984 23bn
2008 330-450bn

CASE stats

THE Consumers Association of Singapore (Case) has handled about 263,486 cases since it was established in 1971. It has also mediated 869 cases since its mediation centre was opened in 1999.

Case has received an average of 20,000 complaints every year in the last five years and managed to recover about $4 million annually over the last two years in disputes for consumers.

Number of cases involving Sim Lim Square retailers
2004: 69
2005: 103
2006: 119
2007: 188
2008: 244 (1.2% of all CASE complaints)
2009 (up till February): 48
Complaints include unsatisfactory service and overcharging.

Motor car industry
2006: 1,435
2007: 1,562
2008: 1,709 (8.5% of all CASE complaints)
2009 (up till February): 272
Complaints cover problems such as defective goods and misleading claims.

Spa industry
2007: 98
2008: 113
2009 (up till February): 12
Complaints involve pressure selling and failure to deliver services promised.

Beauty industry
2007: 1,105
2008: 1,275 (6.3% of all CASE complaints)
2009 (up till February): 151
Complaints include misrepresentation and failure to honour contracts.

Dividends

USD 736bn of dividends paid in 2007
25% decline or more in 2008

Financial firms contributed to 1/3 of USD 736bn

Dividend accounts for 30-40% of overall returns of stocks (about 8-10%)

Rights issue

S$ 8bn rights issue in past few mths
Capitaland S$ 1.84bn

Mkt cap of STI S$ 224bn
ie 3.6% of mkt cap from rights issue!

Rights issue = bad capital management
Forcing shareholders to cough out more money

Sg co.s: bad track record for prudent capital management
Top of the list: Capitaland

Online email users

Hotmail 283mn users
Yahoo! 274mn users
Gmail 113mn users (1mn business users)

stem cord blood

22 lives saved
12 in Singapore

4,000 donations so far
Target 10,000 by 2013 (deadline extended from 2010)

lives saved / donations = 0.55%

Revenue for bank $800,000 per yr

Casinos in Asia

Country / Operating & Proposed / Cruise Ships

Thailand / 6 / 2
Myanmar / 1
Laos / 1
Cambodia / 6 / 1
India / 2 / 1
Nepal / 1
Sri Lanka / 1
China / 4 / 2
Australia / 19
Philippines / 10
Vietnam / 7 / 1
Indonesia / 1
Singapore / 2 / 2
Malaysia / 1 / 2
Korea / 5 / 2
Total / 67 / 13

Peak-to-trough changes in severe financial crisis

House prices -36% duration 5.0 yrs
Equity prices -56% duration 3.4 yrs
Unemployment 7.0% duration 4.8 yrs
GDP per person -9.3% duration 1.9 yrs

Percentage of yrs spent in banking crisis
Since 1800 Advanced economies 7.2 Emerging economies 8.3
Sinc 1945 Advanced economies 7.0 Emerging economies 10.8

Corporate earnings growth

Studies over 50 yrs have shown the following

Only 10% of US co.s increased earnings by 20% for 5 consecutive yrs
Only 3% of US co.s increased earnings by 20% for 10 consecutive yrs
0% manage to do that for 15 consecutive yrs

Only 8 out of 150 Fortune 500 co.s increased earnings by an annual average of at least 15% for 20 yrs

On average, over all 10-yr period, earnings grew by 10%pa.
But for the biggest 20%, earnings grew by 9%pa.

Bonuses

Bonuses paid over the last 3 yrs in USD

Bear Stearns 11.3bn
Lehman 21.6bn
Merrill 45bn
Citi 34.4bn

Investors return in USD
Bear Stearns 1.4bn of JPM stock (now 50%)
Lehman 0
Merrill 9.6bn of BOA stock (now left 20%)
Citi 18.1bn (mkt cap)

Road accidents in Singapore

Injuries 10742
Death 222
Death per 100,000 4.59

Death breakdown
Motorcycle and pillions 108
Car driver and passenger 23
Pedestrians 62 (of which 45% above age 60)
Cyclist 22
Other 7

Gaming bigger than DVD

Consumer spending on
Gaming USD 32bn
DVD USD 29bn

US and Jpn household B/S

US
Assets total USD 71 trn (45 trn financial assets, 21 trn RE, 4 trn durable goods)
Debt total USD 15 trn
Net Assets USD 56 trn (3.8x US GDP)
Foreign debt USD 7 trn
Per capita net savings USD 198,000

Jpn
Assets total USD 22 trn (17 trn financial assets, 3 trn RE, 2 trn durable goods)
Debt USD 3.6trn
Net Assets USD 18 trn
Per capita net savings USD 142,000

Singapore marriages

In 2005, 6,520 male Singaporeans and permanent residents married foreign brides, up from 4,425 in 2003.

1,596 local women married foreign men, up from 1,134 in 1996.

Marriage rate 2002 2007
Males per 1,000 unmarried males 47.6 43.8
Females per 1,000 unmarried females 47.9 42.6

Median age of marriage 2002 2007
Males 28.9 29.8
Females 26.3 27.2

Sg women in trouble?

Oil consumption global

Consumption mn b/d %
N. America 25.53 29.7%
Europe 15.3 17.8%
Pacific 8.35 9.7%

OECD 49.18 57.1%

FSU 4.13 4.8%
Europe 0.75 0.9%
China 7.54 8.8%
Asia 9.26 10.8%
Latam 5.62 6.5%
Middle East 6.52 7.6%
Africa 3.07 3.6%
Non OECD 36.89 42.9%

Total 86.07

Oil pdtn global

Pdtn mn b/d %
N. America 14.23 16.7%
Europe 4.95 5.8%
Pacific 0.63 0.7%
OECD 19.81 23.2%

FSU 12.77 15.0%
Europe 0.13 0.2%
China 3.73 4.4%
Asia 2.67 3.1%
Latam 4.32 5.1%
Middle East 1.64 1.9%
Africa 2.51 2.9%
Processing Gains 2.17 2.5%
Non OPEC/OECD 29.94 35.1%

Open Crude 30.71 36.0%
NGLs 4.77 5.6%
OPEC 35.48 41.6%

Total 85.23

Scrap car cash refund

Cash refunds per year could range from $1 billion to $2 billion. Government will require to set aside provisions each year for the cash refund. This means it could be in for a bigger deficit.

18,000 cars cost S$410mn
Average scrap value $22,000

Uni and Poly intake per cohort

25 per cent of each cohort now go to university
more than 40 per cent go to polytechnics in singapore

Melamine milk

Melamine milk killed six babies and left another 294,000 suffering kidney and urinary troubles.

In all, 22 Chinese dairy firms were found to have sold tainted milk, and the government last week ordered them to pay $160 million (S$230.2 million) in compensation to the families of babies that died or fell ill.

The families and their lawyers criticised the sum as woefully inadequate, with some parents set to only receive about 300 dollars.