Industry Knowledge and Other Information

China savings

2011-11-16T21:51:00.001-08:00

USD 470 per worker in social safety net.

China needs to put more public money into social savings to encourage take off in private consumption.

China CPI basket

2011-10-10T18:15:00.001-07:00

30% food
20% housing
But not prices, but mortgage interest rates and utilities

China credit bubble impact to Singapore

2011-10-09T20:27:00.001-07:00

DBS loan in 2Q 2011 $50bn
Ocbc $15bn
Uob $8bn

9% of residential property bought by Chinese

28% of all transactions by foreigners

Shadow banking in China S$815bn

60% to SMEs

Spas in Singapore

2011-10-09T20:17:00.001-07:00

1200 spas and massage parlor in Singapore.

60 of them operate 24 hours.

Chinese internet

2011-09-19T00:15:00.000-07:00

Online sales US$60bn

360buy sales US$1.6bn in 2010

Taobao to handle US$160bn in transaction in 2012

Taobao share dropped to 75%
Jingdong (360buy) is 4%

De Beers, Botswana, Diamonds

2011-09-19T00:14:00.000-07:00

Botswana produces 21% of global diamond output
2/3 of De Beers output

Govt has 15% of De Beers JV in Botswana
Govt wants to have the right to sell 10% of diamond mined in the country
Currently De Beers is selling everything
US$480mn revenue from Diamonds - 2010 for Botswana

Asia Investment Banking

2011-09-18T23:50:00.000-07:00

2010
UBS No.1 net rev US$574m
CS
GS
JPM US$573
DB US$409

UBS mkt shr 5%
UBS owns 20% of defunct Beijing Securities, has licence in China
can underwrite Chinese bonds and equities and trade equities

Investment banks staff churn 16% per yr

Patents

2011-09-15T23:44:00.000-07:00

2010, 160,000 patents (international)

US 28%
Japan 20%
Germany 11%
China 8%
Korea 6%
France 4%
UK 3%
Holland 2.5%
Swiss 2.2%
Sweden 1.9%
Denmark 1.9%
Others 15%

China YoY growth 56%
Korea 20%
Japan 8%
Germany 2%
US -2%

Net cash

2011-09-15T23:34:00.001-07:00

Closing in on 50% of Jp co. are in net cash position

Nikkei

LNG import to Japan

2011-09-15T23:27:00.001-07:00

Malaysia 20%
Australia 19%
Indonesia 18%
Qatar 11%
Russia 9%
Brunei 8%
UAE 7%
Oman 4%

US shale gas - target to import this

Unmarried men

2011-09-15T19:41:00.000-07:00

In 2030, there will be 60mn men not being able to get married due to distorted male female ratio in Chin and India

New grad salaries in Sg 2011

2011-09-15T19:04:00.001-07:00

Degree S$2700
Masters $3000

From ST

Marriages

2011-09-15T19:03:00.000-07:00

50% of marriages in Western countries end in divorce
50% of all children are born out of wedlock in Western countries

Mean age of marriage - 30 yrs old for women, risen sharply

20-30% of women will not get married in most Asian countries

Reason: women in the work 40 hrs, and do housework for another 30 hrs after marriage
men - only 3 hrs of housework

Global smartphone market share

2011-08-18T02:43:00.001-07:00

Global smartphone market share

Android 48%
iOS 19%
Symbian 17%
Rimm 11%
MSFT 2.4%

NBA vs CBA

2011-08-06T01:56:00.001-07:00

Chinese CBA player earns 300-500k yuan or 50-80k USD

Top players earn 1 mn yuan

But NBA average salary 5 mn USD

ASEAN trade

2011-07-23T00:59:00.001-07:00

Only 25% of export and import are within ASEAN

Asia PE and EV/EBITDA range

2011-05-06T22:41:00.000-07:00

From 2001 to 2010
Asia Shiller PE range 10-15x (Peak 18x in 2007)
EV/EBITDA range 5.5-9x (Peak 12x in 2007)

Asia dividends

2011-05-06T22:37:00.001-07:00

US$36bn paid in 2002
US$147bn paid in 2010

Manufacturing as % of Economy

2011-04-29T01:08:00.000-07:00

2008

China 33%
Korea 25%
Singapore 25%
Japan 22%
Germany 22%
Italy 18%
Brazil 15%
US 13%
UK 13%
France 5%

Indonesia millionaires and Singapore

2011-04-29T00:34:00.001-07:00

There are 60,000 millionaires in Indonesia and the total wealth in the
country stood at $1.8 trillion in 2010, according to Credit Suisse Global
Wealth report released last year.

Indonesia's average wealth per adult has increased the fastest in the
Asia-Pacific region since 2000, growing fivefold to $12,112, according to the
report.

Nuclear

2011-04-19T06:21:00.000-07:00

440 reactors in operation
61 under construction
158 planned
326 proposed

Custodian Banks (old)

2011-04-19T06:12:00.001-07:00

Bank of New York Mellon, world's largest custodian bank
USD 21trn AUM, 20% of all securities held worldwide

State Street Bank, 2nd largest custodian bank
USD 15trn AUM, 15% of all securities held worldwide

US Share Buyback

2011-02-26T00:14:00.001-08:00

2010 share Buyback $174 bn

Cash level $1,081 bn

S&P500 dividend roughly $40bn in 2010

Libya

2011-02-24T22:40:00.000-08:00

Gadhafi killed 200,000 Libyans or 5% of population over his rule of 42 yrs.

Estimated to have killed more Americans other than Osama.

Ultimate responsibility for Pam Am 103 bombing: death of 270 innocent civilians.

Rent for expats comparison

2011-02-24T22:35:00.000-08:00

Tokyo US$4352
Moscow US$3500
Hong Kong US$2830
London US$2824
Singapore YS$2810

Two bedroom apartment
Roughly 80sqm

By ECA International

Chinese corruption

2011-02-18T19:11:00.001-08:00

147,000 officials punished for corruption in 2007.

Of which 3-4 were part of 370 leading officials of the country

Casino Levy in Singapore

2011-02-08T23:34:00.000-08:00

Govt collected $130mn in levy for first 9 mths
ie 3,500 Singaporeans visit the casinos every day

Levy at $100 bcos it makes it more expensive than to travel to Batam

Genting does not allow Muslims to go
Korea has 14 casinos but only 1 for locals

POSCO

2011-01-20T17:36:00.000-08:00

POSCO USD 12bn plant in India being blocked by India's environmental ministry.
It will be the biggest FDI in India if it is successful.
India despite having a poor record on environment, block a potentially good FDI bcos of politics.
At the same time hurting the development of the country.

Taxi booking

2011-01-18T00:02:00.000-08:00

24mn taxi booking in 2010
913,000 trips made per day
7% of all trips are taxi booking

But we all know taxi booking is a stupid system
Forces the passenger to book and pay up

25,000 taxis in Singapore
Each taxi on average make 37 trips per day

Say average trip is $10
Each taxi makes $370
Each driver makes $185
Petrol and rental $65
ie driver makes $120 per day
or $3,600 per month

US Debt

2011-01-13T22:20:00.000-08:00

Interest payment to federal revenue
2010 8.6%
2020 17.6%
All else equal

Rating
2020 A
2025 BBB
2035 Junk

Singapore F1 stats

2010-11-02T02:57:00.000-07:00

Attendance
2008 Total 100,000 Foreigners 50,000
2009 Total 70,000 Foreigners 20,000
2010 Total 80,000 Foreigners 40,000

Tourism Receipts
2008 S$180mn
2009 S$90mn
2010 S$93mn

Cost of F1 S$150mn per year
60% of bill foot by Sg Govt
40% by Ong Beng Seng
But 70% of revenue goes to OBS

ie "losses" for Sg Govt S$60mn per year
ie about S$2.5 per user to get 150mn F1 TV viewers globally to see Singapore

Should F1 continue after 2014, terms with OBS have to be revised.

Shanghai Expo

2010-11-02T01:43:00.000-07:00

73 mn visitors in 1st 6 mths
USD 40bn spent on city wide upgrade
including 150 subway stations
Ticket sales would have generated USD 1.8bn
but Chinese are subsidized by Govt

iPad and Netbooks

2010-10-08T02:47:00.000-07:00

11mn iPad to be sold in 2010
20mn estimated in 2011

30mn netbooks sold in 2009
Probably the peak of netbooks has passed

Lawyers per population

2010-10-07T03:09:00.000-07:00

1 Lawyer for x no. of people

US 265
Brazil 326
NZ 391
Spain 395
UK 401
Italy 488
Germany 593
France 1403

US and India has more than 1mn lawyers
US has much less than the often quote myth of 70% of world's lawyers

Singapore Expat Salaries

2010-09-23T02:00:00.000-07:00

45% of Singapore's Expat earns more than $265,000, which is more than the top 10% of Singapore's household.

If Expat use 20% of income as rental, the supportive rental level is

$53,000 per year
$4,400 per month

Using a cap rate of 5%
The supportive property price is then $1.06mn

SGX ETF

2010-09-11T21:58:00.001-07:00

74 ETF
Trading value $4bn
Most active gold, india, china

Global ETF AUM
US$1 trn
2200 ETF on 42 exchanges

Wheat

2010-08-10T21:57:00.000-07:00

Total 122 mn tons

US 27mn t
EU 23mn t
Canada 15.5mn t
Australia 15mn t
Russia 15mn t
Kazakhstan 8mn t
Ukraine 8mn t
Argentina 7mn t
Turkey 3.1mn t
Mexico 1.2mn t

Sg job creation

2010-08-08T18:36:00.001-07:00

Sg created

36,000 jobs 2Q CY 2010
26,000 jobs 1Q CY 2010

Online gambling

2010-08-04T03:06:00.000-07:00

Total USD 26bn

17% US
14% Japan
11.5% UK
7% Italy
5% Germany
5% France
3.7% Sweden
3.4% Australia
3.3% HK
3.3% Canada
27% Others

Market to grow to USD 36bn in 2012

Global gambling market

2010-08-04T03:05:00.000-07:00

USD 335bn

31% Casino
30% Lottery
22% Non-casino gaming machine
7% Horse racing
5% Sports betting
5% Bingo and others

Online USD 26bn

China land prices

2010-07-28T01:02:00.000-07:00

US$400 per square meter (105 cities)
about US$40 psf or S$60 psf

Asia Export

2010-07-22T02:48:00.000-07:00

Asia 10: China, HK, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand

US 14%
Japan 7%
EU 15%
Intra Asia 48%
ROW 8%

30% or so of export goes to OECD countries
60% or so goes back intra Asia

TV market share

2010-07-22T01:15:00.000-07:00

2010

Samsung 18%
LG 13%
Sony 11%
Toshiba 6.6%
Sharp 5.5%
Panasonic 5%
Philips 4.5%
Vizio 3.6%
Funai 3.6%
Sanyo 2.9%
JVC 0.1%

Chinese players 20%
Others 6.2%

Global tech stuff shipment

2010-07-22T01:09:00.000-07:00

2010
Mobile 1.1bn units

PCs 360mn
Of which desktop 140mn
Of which laptop 220mn

TVs 210mn
Of which LCD 170mn
Of which PDP 40mn

DSC 130mn
Of which SLR 11mn

Oil Rig Count

2010-07-20T01:43:00.001-07:00

Total 2800
US 1500
Canada 230
Far East 270
Africa 80
Europe 100
Latam 390

Mobile phone market share in China

2010-07-19T02:29:00.000-07:00

Nokia 33%
Samsung 25%
Lenovo 24%
Tianyu 7.5%
Motorola 6%
Others 10%

Dividend Yield Stocks - 2010

2010-07-05T23:48:00.000-07:00

This is a bonus post!

Generated a list of stocks with high dividend on the SGX (more than 5% dividend yield)

Sorted according to payout ratio, a high payout ratio means that there is increased likelihood that the firm cannot maintain its dividend if earnings don't do well.

Other display fields include reported PE, PB, 3 yr average ROE and EBIT margin.

Personally, I think Boustead, Vicom and SATS are well-known and solid dividend plays listed on SGX. Haven't done much research on most of these stocks.

Also, pls be reminded that the yield is average 3 yr yield, which is slightly different from the current yield. Current yield is lower for most stocks. Eg. Vicom, SATS are 4 plus % based on current yield while the table shows 5-6% yield.

Anyways, hope this helps!

Highest paid CEOs of S&P500

2010-05-13T10:29:00.001-07:00

1. Carol Bartz, Yahoo Inc., $47.2 million

2. Leslie Moonves, CBS Corp., $42.9 million

3. Marc Casper, Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc., $34.1 million

4. Philippe Dauman, Viacom Inc., $33.9 million

5. J. Raymond Elliott, Boston Scientific Corp., $33.3 million

6. Ray Irani, Occidental Petroleum Corp., $31.4 million

7. Glen Senk, Urban Outfitters Inc., $29.9 million

8. Brian Roberts, Comcast Corp., $27.2 million

9. William Weldon, Johnson & Johnson, $25.5 million

10. Louis Camilleri, Philip Morris International Inc., $24.4 million

Gem demand

2010-04-14T20:42:00.000-07:00

Sales of diamonds in Belgium

in USD
China $737mn
US $695mn
Israel $274mn
Switzerland $237mn
UAE $140mn
India $139mn
UK $66mn
France $56mn
Italy $55mn

AirAsia vs SIA

2010-04-13T23:27:00.001-07:00

Since beginning full-scale operations in 2002, AirAsia has grown sharply by offering low-cost flights. As of the end of 2009, the company served 136 cities in a total of 18 countries and areas. AirAsia saw its passenger traffic jump 24% to about 22.7 million last year, topping Singapore Airlines Ltd.'s roughly 16.3 million to become the biggest airline company in Southeast Asia.

Jakarta: Vehicles and Pollution

2010-04-13T01:48:00.001-07:00

8.5mn residents
9.9mn vehicles (including motorbikes)

Causing major pollution issues

China's Real Estate

2010-04-13T01:36:00.000-07:00

China cost of 100sqm house over average annual household income has been hovering around 9-11x for the past 10 years.

Beijing is 16x, in most cities, more than 8x

However Chinese citizens have government subsidies or parents to help them coup with such high prices. Mostly people afford their 1st private home from their sale of public housing, which is usually their first home
Or enjoy parent support when buying their 1st private home

Housing composition
35% public housing
13% rented public house
9% economic houses
23% commercial houses
5% rented commercial houses
11% self constructed
4% others

Downpayment of homes usually 3x annual income
mortage servicing cost is 50% of disposable income

High price to income ratio in China supported by 50m upper income households, which is 8x annual household supply of 6mn units

Home buyers have very little leverage, consumer debt only 16% of GDP
US consumer never hit below 20% of GDP by contrast

There is a risk of more than the usual in 6mn units of supply bcos municipal govt gets 30-50% of revenue from land sales and are unlikely to stop selling land

But 1% increase in urbanization rate means 4-5m new urban households every year - hence the supply glut would be covered in time

There are talks of introducing a 1.5% property tax based on 70% of buying price

Alkaff Mansion

2010-04-07T23:07:00.001-07:00

Top bid rent $79,251
by LES

SLA rent guide $28,100 per month

2nd bidder $41,300 br Frangance Group

Gross floor area 13,000 sq ft
Land area 97,000 sq ft

LES psf $6
SLA psf $2

Singapore motor insurance

2010-03-22T01:17:00.000-07:00

It said industry losses narrowed sharply to $44.5 million last year from $214 million the year before, partly as a result of steep premium hikes last year.
The hike pushed the amount of pre-miums collected across the billion-dollar mark for the first time: Insurers collected $1.08 billion from a record 925,518 vehicles on the road.

$48 loss per insured vehicle - 2009
$231 loss per insured vehicle - 2008

Ad Spend and Global Entertainment

2010-03-08T17:15:00.001-08:00

Disease ranking

2010-02-23T18:42:00.000-08:00

Malaria 300-500 million annually
Childhood pneumonia 150million annually
Dengue fever 50mn cases annually
Cancer new cases 10mn annually
Diabetes 8.5mn annually
New AIDS victim 2.7mn annually

AIDS
People living with HIV/AIDS in 2008 33 million
New AIDS victim 2.7mn
More than 25 million people have died of AIDS since 1981

Diabetes
170mn diabetic patients globally
3.2mn dies every year

Cancer
New cases 10mn
6mn deaths
100mn culmulative death from tobacco related cancer

Malaria
300-500 million people contract malaria annually

One million people die each year from malaria

Childhood pneumonia
Pneumonia kills an estimated 1.8 million children every year
Accounting for 20% of all deaths of children under five years old worldwide

China auto players 2009

2010-01-27T19:48:00.001-08:00

Global online gaming market size

2010-01-14T18:49:00.003-08:00

Korea USD 2-3bn
China USD 2.3bn
Japan USD 1bn
US USD 0.8bn
EU USD 0.6bn

Comparison of various famous genocides/atrocities

2010-01-14T17:32:00.000-08:00

Death tolls

6mn WWII Jews Genocide (1942-45)
3mn Khmer Rouge @ Cambodia (1975-79)
2-3mn Cultural Revolution (1966-76)
3mn North Korea Arduous March (1995-98)
1mn Rwanda (1994)
0.2-0.3mn Nanjing Massacre (1937)
0.1mn Hiroshima Atomic Bombing (1945)
60,000 Nagasaki Atomic Boming (1945)
50,000 Changi Beach Massacre (1942)
3,000 Tiananmen Incident (1989)

Shortest time span record - Hiroshima 0.1mn death in 10 seconds

Thailand auto production

2009-12-16T23:27:00.000-08:00

Thailand's automobile industry is expected to
achieve its 2009 sales target as it sold more new vehicles for a third
consecutive month in November on the back of an improving economy and
higher demand from farmers, the local unit of Toyota Motor Corp.
(7203.TO) said Wednesday. With December historically the strongest month
for vehicle sales and as the economy continues to recover, the industry
is likely to meet its 2009 sales target of 520,000 units, the company
said in a statement. Sales rose 23.8% from a year earlier in November to
57,031 units, following an 8.8% gain in October, said Toyota, which
compiles figures for the industry. During the January to November
period, new car and truck sales fell 14.3% to 476,786 units. In November,
passenger car sales were up 32.3% to 24,054 units, it said. Toyota had
the largest market share of the segment at 41.7%, while Honda Motor Co.
(7267.TO) had 38.9%. Sales of commercial vehicles, including one-ton
pickup trucks, rose 18.2% to 32,977 units with Toyota grabbing 44.1% of
the market while Isuzu Motors Ltd. (7202.TO) had a 33.6% share, as
stronger agricultural product prices prompted farmers to buy or upgrade
their vehicles.

HDB affordability

2009-10-19T19:12:00.000-07:00

Mortgage to annual salary ratio of 30% - not a good indicator
Bcos pple who cannot afford flats are not captured

Also loan tenure is 30 yr
About 56% of all HDB buyers take 30 yr loan

Price to income ratio
4 rm
2000 4.7
2009 5.5

5 rm
2000 5
2009 5.6

Global average 7-9x

HDB flats have become less affordable in the past 9 yrs but still more affordable vs global average.

Who is driving up HDB prices?

2009-10-19T18:31:00.001-07:00

PR buys 20% of all HDB resale flats

23,000 HDB flats are rented out illegally (est)

Salary: Singapore vs Asia Pacific

2009-10-19T18:20:00.000-07:00

Pakistan 9.6%
Vietnam 8.5%
India 8%
Singapore 2.8% (No.7 out of 19)
HK 2.3%
NZ 2.2%
Japan 1.9%
Average 4.8%

Salary freeze ratio
2009 50%
2010 16%

Resignation rate
2008 16.7%
2009 6.2%

HDB new flats

2009-09-14T22:38:00.000-07:00

HDB new flats
2007 2,000
2008 8,000+
2009 8,000+

There are roughly 24,000 marriages in Sg every year

Median selling prices
3 rm $240k
4 rm $320k
5 rm $380k

80% of households qualifies for grant

Orchard Road

2009-08-15T09:55:00.000-07:00

7 mn tourist in 2008

8mn sqf of retail space of which
1.2mn sqf are new retails

HDB rental

2009-07-27T17:39:00.000-07:00

'The highest you can fetch in rent for an HDB flat in a good location is probably $2,000 plus. Any higher, people will go to condos,' ERA agent

HDB figures show that a three-room flat in Ang Mo Kio, Jurong West or Serangoon typically fetched rent of about $1,400 a month in the second quarter of in 2009.

Military Spending

2009-06-30T00:12:00.000-07:00

US 607bn (41% of world total)
China 85bn (5.8%)
France 65.7bn (4.5%)
Britain 65.4bn (4.5%)
Russia 58bn (4%)

Per Person

Israel $2300 (total 16.2bn)
US $1900 (607bn)
Oman $1700 (4.5bn)
Singapore $1700 (7.5bn)
Kuwait $1600 (4.7bn)
S. Arabia $1500 (38.2bn)
Norway $1250 (5.9bn)
Greece $1100 (12.6bn)
Britain $1050 (65.3bn)
France $1050 (65.7bn)

Total global military spending $1.46trn (4% increase YoY)

Reported by Swedish thinktank Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Prime Grade A Office Rental and Vacancy Rate

2009-06-29T02:54:00.000-07:00

Formidable Apple

2009-06-18T01:35:00.000-07:00

8% of all computer users are Mac users

10 mn Imac sold in 2008
54mn Ipod sold in 2008
12 mn Iphone sold in 2008

Sg deposits

2009-06-03T17:37:00.000-07:00

S$150bn in banks in SG
Reserves being unlock to cover potentially all withdrawals

Sexually active teens

2009-06-03T17:35:00.001-07:00

Singapore 14-19 years old - 8%
US 15-19 years old - 46%!

Survey of 4000 students in Sg done in 2006, US 2002

China poverty

2009-04-09T01:46:00.000-07:00

20% of Chinese living in poverty ie less than $1 per day
A huge drop from 80% in 1981 though

Retail rental in Singapore

2009-03-20T01:15:00.000-07:00

Location 2005 2008
Orchard (high end eg Paragon) $35-56psf $50-80psf
Orchard (mid eg Taka) $28-35psf $30-50psf
Orchard (low eg Far East) $3.6-31.5psf $4-35psf
Suntec and Marina $16-20psf $20-25psf
Suburban $2.6-6.8psf $3-8psf

Monthly breakeven revenue
Orchard $80k
Suntec $30k
Surban $8k

Singapore Reserves

2009-03-20T01:14:00.000-07:00

Figures in USD
1965 1bn
1981 15bn
1984 23bn
2008 330-450bn

CASE stats

2009-03-19T20:15:00.000-07:00

THE Consumers Association of Singapore (Case) has handled about 263,486 cases since it was established in 1971. It has also mediated 869 cases since its mediation centre was opened in 1999.

Case has received an average of 20,000 complaints every year in the last five years and managed to recover about $4 million annually over the last two years in disputes for consumers.

Number of cases involving Sim Lim Square retailers
2004: 69
2005: 103
2006: 119
2007: 188
2008: 244 (1.2% of all CASE complaints)
2009 (up till February): 48
Complaints include unsatisfactory service and overcharging.

Motor car industry
2006: 1,435
2007: 1,562
2008: 1,709 (8.5% of all CASE complaints)
2009 (up till February): 272
Complaints cover problems such as defective goods and misleading claims.

Spa industry
2007: 98
2008: 113
2009 (up till February): 12
Complaints involve pressure selling and failure to deliver services promised.

Beauty industry
2007: 1,105
2008: 1,275 (6.3% of all CASE complaints)
2009 (up till February): 151
Complaints include misrepresentation and failure to honour contracts.

Dividends

2009-03-09T00:58:00.000-07:00

USD 736bn of dividends paid in 2007
25% decline or more in 2008

Financial firms contributed to 1/3 of USD 736bn

Dividend accounts for 30-40% of overall returns of stocks (about 8-10%)

Rights issue

2009-03-02T18:46:00.000-08:00

S$ 8bn rights issue in past few mths
Capitaland S$ 1.84bn

Mkt cap of STI S$ 224bn
ie 3.6% of mkt cap from rights issue!

Rights issue = bad capital management
Forcing shareholders to cough out more money

Sg co.s: bad track record for prudent capital management
Top of the list: Capitaland

Online email users

2009-03-02T17:38:00.000-08:00

Hotmail 283mn users
Yahoo! 274mn users
Gmail 113mn users (1mn business users)

stem cord blood

2009-02-19T00:56:00.001-08:00

22 lives saved
12 in Singapore

4,000 donations so far
Target 10,000 by 2013 (deadline extended from 2010)

lives saved / donations = 0.55%

Revenue for bank $800,000 per yr

Casinos in Asia

2009-02-15T17:55:00.000-08:00

Country / Operating & Proposed / Cruise Ships

Thailand / 6 / 2
Myanmar / 1
Laos / 1
Cambodia / 6 / 1
India / 2 / 1
Nepal / 1
Sri Lanka / 1
China / 4 / 2
Australia / 19
Philippines / 10
Vietnam / 7 / 1
Indonesia / 1
Singapore / 2 / 2
Malaysia / 1 / 2
Korea / 5 / 2
Total / 67 / 13

Peak-to-trough changes in severe financial crisis

2009-02-13T19:08:00.000-08:00

House prices -36% duration 5.0 yrs
Equity prices -56% duration 3.4 yrs
Unemployment 7.0% duration 4.8 yrs
GDP per person -9.3% duration 1.9 yrs

Percentage of yrs spent in banking crisis
Since 1800 Advanced economies 7.2 Emerging economies 8.3
Sinc 1945 Advanced economies 7.0 Emerging economies 10.8

Corporate earnings growth

2009-02-12T21:47:00.000-08:00

Studies over 50 yrs have shown the following

Only 10% of US co.s increased earnings by 20% for 5 consecutive yrs
Only 3% of US co.s increased earnings by 20% for 10 consecutive yrs
0% manage to do that for 15 consecutive yrs

Only 8 out of 150 Fortune 500 co.s increased earnings by an annual average of at least 15% for 20 yrs

On average, over all 10-yr period, earnings grew by 10%pa.
But for the biggest 20%, earnings grew by 9%pa.

Bonuses

2009-02-12T21:42:00.000-08:00

Bonuses paid over the last 3 yrs in USD

Bear Stearns 11.3bn
Lehman 21.6bn
Merrill 45bn
Citi 34.4bn

Investors return in USD
Bear Stearns 1.4bn of JPM stock (now 50%)
Lehman 0
Merrill 9.6bn of BOA stock (now left 20%)
Citi 18.1bn (mkt cap)

Road accidents in Singapore

2009-02-01T21:56:00.000-08:00

Injuries 10742
Death 222
Death per 100,000 4.59

Death breakdown
Motorcycle and pillions 108
Car driver and passenger 23
Pedestrians 62 (of which 45% above age 60)
Cyclist 22
Other 7

Gaming bigger than DVD

2009-02-01T19:02:00.000-08:00

Consumer spending on
Gaming USD 32bn
DVD USD 29bn

US and Jpn household B/S

2009-01-29T00:18:00.000-08:00

US
Assets total USD 71 trn (45 trn financial assets, 21 trn RE, 4 trn durable goods)
Debt total USD 15 trn
Net Assets USD 56 trn (3.8x US GDP)
Foreign debt USD 7 trn
Per capita net savings USD 198,000

Jpn
Assets total USD 22 trn (17 trn financial assets, 3 trn RE, 2 trn durable goods)
Debt USD 3.6trn
Net Assets USD 18 trn
Per capita net savings USD 142,000

Singapore marriages

2009-01-22T18:02:00.000-08:00

In 2005, 6,520 male Singaporeans and permanent residents married foreign brides, up from 4,425 in 2003.

1,596 local women married foreign men, up from 1,134 in 1996.

Marriage rate 2002 2007
Males per 1,000 unmarried males 47.6 43.8
Females per 1,000 unmarried females 47.9 42.6

Median age of marriage 2002 2007
Males 28.9 29.8
Females 26.3 27.2

Sg women in trouble?

Oil consumption global

2009-01-13T01:14:00.000-08:00

Consumption mn b/d %
N. America 25.53 29.7%
Europe 15.3 17.8%
Pacific 8.35 9.7%

OECD 49.18 57.1%

FSU 4.13 4.8%
Europe 0.75 0.9%
China 7.54 8.8%
Asia 9.26 10.8%
Latam 5.62 6.5%
Middle East 6.52 7.6%
Africa 3.07 3.6%
Non OECD 36.89 42.9%

Total 86.07

Oil pdtn global

2009-01-13T01:12:00.000-08:00

Pdtn mn b/d %
N. America 14.23 16.7%
Europe 4.95 5.8%
Pacific 0.63 0.7%
OECD 19.81 23.2%

FSU 12.77 15.0%
Europe 0.13 0.2%
China 3.73 4.4%
Asia 2.67 3.1%
Latam 4.32 5.1%
Middle East 1.64 1.9%
Africa 2.51 2.9%
Processing Gains 2.17 2.5%
Non OPEC/OECD 29.94 35.1%

Open Crude 30.71 36.0%
NGLs 4.77 5.6%
OPEC 35.48 41.6%

Total 85.23

Scrap car cash refund

2009-01-10T08:08:00.001-08:00

Cash refunds per year could range from $1 billion to $2 billion. Government will require to set aside provisions each year for the cash refund. This means it could be in for a bigger deficit.

18,000 cars cost S$410mn
Average scrap value $22,000

Uni and Poly intake per cohort

2009-01-07T17:45:00.000-08:00

25 per cent of each cohort now go to university
more than 40 per cent go to polytechnics in singapore

Melamine milk

2009-01-04T22:23:00.000-08:00

Melamine milk killed six babies and left another 294,000 suffering kidney and urinary troubles.

In all, 22 Chinese dairy firms were found to have sold tainted milk, and the government last week ordered them to pay $160 million (S$230.2 million) in compensation to the families of babies that died or fell ill.

The families and their lawyers criticised the sum as woefully inadequate, with some parents set to only receive about 300 dollars.

Derivative markets

2008-12-25T06:11:00.000-08:00

In 2007, ballooned to USD 600 trn (11x global GDP)
In 1997, it was USD 75trn (2.5x global GDP)

Part of the reason for the credit crunch now

Credit growth

2008-12-25T06:10:00.001-08:00

Post war credit growth 9% annually
Banking crisis will reduce this to 1% in US

Impact to GDP negative 1.5%

Banking crisis

2008-12-25T06:06:00.000-08:00

Average downturn for recent banking crisis = 4 yrs
This one started in July 2007
ie recovery in 2011?

Average cost to public purse = 16% of GDP
Japan's case =24% of GDP

US has put 7% of GDP to rescue, if successful, actually much better than average and would save US a lot of trouble

Signs of Colon Cancer

2008-12-25T05:03:00.001-08:00

1. Blood in stool (dried red colour)
2. Thin and small faeces
3. Need to visit loo very often
4. Anemic
5. Constipation and diarrhea at the same time

1 in 3 humans will get cancer in their lifetime

Lithium Ion Battery

2008-12-25T04:52:00.000-08:00

Sanyo 25%
Sony 16%
BYD (China) 13%
Panasonic 11%
SDI (Korea) 10%
LG Chem 9%
Others 16%

800mn units (2004)
USD 3.5 per unit
USD 3bn mkt

Iron Ore and Coal

2008-12-24T22:55:00.000-08:00

Worldwide pdtn 720mn t

CVRD 33%
Rio Tinto 23%
BHP 16%
Others 28%

Top 3 players 72%

BHP (BMA) 26%
Xstrada 7%
Rio Tinto 7%
Anglo 7%
Other Australia players 13%
Elk Valley (Canada) 12%
US 10%
China 5%
Other 13%

Top 5 players 59%

Visitors to Zoo, Bird Park, Night Safari

2008-12-24T05:31:00.000-08:00

In 2004
zoo has an average of 1.5 million visitors,
bird park, 900,000,
and the Night Safari, 850,000.
They bring in an estimated $60 million in revenue

One-time entry fee
Zoo and bird park is $14 for adults and $7 for children
Night Safari, it is $18 for adults and $9 for children

Wildlife Reserves has increased the family membership fees
Friends of the Zoo Friends of the Birds packages from $87 and $81 a year to $100 Friends of Night Safari package $150

New membership package called Wildlife Unlimited
Annual fee of $240, two adults and three children under 12 years old can
get access to all the three attractions any number of times
Target one million members in the next three months

In 2007
Jurong BirdPark 830,000 visitors
Singapore Zoo 1.5 million visitors
Night Safari, 1.1 million

Their combined turnover: $77 million
In 2008, revenue $88 million, profits mgn 20%

Ms Chiang, 57, a former Nominated Member of Parliament and senior vice-president of luxury hotel chain Banyan Tree, is chairwoman of WildLife Reserve Singapore.
Predecessor Robert Kwan
Ms Fanny Lai, group chief executive officer.

Three parks have been venues for about 50 weddings a year for the last three years.

Ms Chiang's vision is for the parks to reach out to couples, elderlys, businessmen etc.

WRS introduced the 3-in-1 Park Hopper ticket, which buys entry to all three parks once within a month at $40 for adults and $20 for children under 13.

'Wildlife Unlimited Plus' family memberships at $430, which will give a family of two adults and three children unlimited entry to all three attractions.
1.8x increase over 4 yrs?

Singapore Flyer

2008-12-24T05:16:00.000-08:00

Hit 1mn visitors in 5 mths
On target to hit 2.5mn visitors in first yr

Ticket sales revenue $75mn
Cost of flyer $240mn
Hence ticket sales can cover building cost in 3.2yrs
Factoring in running costs, probably DCF positive in 5-6yrs
This is probably the best case scenario...

However if visitor no.s drop to by 50%, revenue $38mn
Building cost payback 6.5yrs, running cost included 11-12yrs
i.e. bad investment

Maximum revenue $130mn, 4.4mn visitors, payback 1.8yrs

20 businesses at Flyer mostly losing money bcos pple just go for ride and go home

Qns to ask
What is running cost of flyer?
Rental revenue? (currently earning as landlord but not sustainable bcos most shops will close if this goes on...)