HDD

Global unit sales 550mn units

Global insurance

All in USD
Global mkt size 2.6trn
US 600bn
Jpn 400bn
UK 350bn
France 200bn
Germany 100bn

Insurance spending per person
UK 5100 USD
Ireland 4200
Switzerland 3100
France 2900
Finland 2900
Denmark 2800
Japan 2800
Hong Kong 2500
Belgium 2400
Sweden 2200

Insurance mkt as % of GDP
Switzerland 4.9%
US 4.8%
New Zealand 4.5%
Netherlands 4.3%
Slovenia 4%
Canada 3.9%
Germany 3.8%
UK 3.4%
Australia 3.2%
S. Korea 3.2%
Taiwan 2.9%
Japan 2.2%

BRICs car sales

BRICs car sales 13mn cars in 2006
20% of global car sales
50% increase from 2000
Car ownership 2% in India and China

Immersion lithography

Toshiba 55% immersion, 43nm starting
Samsung 30% immersion, 51nm
Hynix 57nm to move to 48nm
Micron immersion ratio unknown, 60% of capacity on 51nm

Data storage

EMC + IBM + Hitachi 650bn GB
Pricing USD 6/GB

NAND 1.2bn GB
Pricing USD 8.7/GB

NAND usage to inc to 2bn GB in 2010

China LCD potential

China TV mkt
40mn units in total
10mn LCD units but 50% Chinese brands

10mn LCD units to increase to 30mn units in few yrs

US biggest mutual funds

75% of the money in index funds is in S&P 500
Vanguard Index 500 has $44 billion, tracks S&P 500
US biggest mutual fund is Fidelity Magellan ($58 billion)
ie Vanguard Index 500 is No.2?
Pension fund has $600-$700 billion in S&P 500

Biggest co.s by Profit

Biggest co.s by profit, ExxonMobil No.1 at USD 20bn profit

But rumored that Abu Dhabi oil co. is even bigger.

No Chinese co.s

Singtel OP SGD 2bn

Whole of Singapore co.s (excluding loss-making co.s) USD 12bn OP

Mkt cap of stocks listed in various Exchanges

Global Optical Fiber Demand

At the peak of IT bubble, 2001 shipment 110mn km
2005 75mn km
2006 90mn km
2007 95mn km

China is now the 2nd largest optical fiber market after US
Should overtake US in 1-2 yrs time

Biggest co.s by Sales

Biggest revenue USD 250bn, Walmart

Last of Top 10 USD 130bn, Total (French co.)

2005 no.s

A380 vs passenger car

3 litres of fuel per passenger per 100km for A380
similar to the fuel consumption of a small family car.

1 litre 10km / 3 pple
ie 0.3 litre 10km per passenger
ie 3 litre per passenger per 100km

1 litre is $2 for one car
1 litre is $0.6 per passenger

Singapore Tokyo fuel surcharge $250
Singapore Tokyo distance 5,300km, so needs 159 litres of fuel

1 litre is $1.6 per aeroplane passenger

Singapore kerosene 216 c per gallon (1985 35c per gallon, 2000 70-100c per gallion)
ie 1 litre of Singapore kerosene cost $0.5 to $0.55 (for SIA)

Sentosa, Bintan, Batam and Bali

Sentosa
In 2001, 3.4mn visitors to Sentosa
In 2005 5.2mn visitors to Sentosa (55% Singaporeans)
1.6mn visitors to Underwater World
Masterplan to revamp Sentosa S$8bn for 10 yrs!
Sentosa is 500ha big

Bintan
In 1998 230,000 visitors to Bintan (Pathetic)

Batam
In 2005 1mn visitors to Batam
In 2004 1.5mn visitors to Batam

Bali
3-5mn visitors to Bali every year

Visitors at Disney Theme Parks

California Adventure not doing well

Breakeven visitors 6mn or so per yr - perhaps

Over 100mn visitors to Disney every year, Disney collects roughly USD 8.7bn fr visitors

Sentosa needs 6mn visitors to become successful - high hurdle?

Tax and millionaires

2121 million dollar income earners in Singapore
383 new million dollar income earners
Million dollar income earners contributed 0.7bn SGD in tax
This is 14.5% of total personal income tax collected. Total 4.7bn SGD

Tota tax revenue 23bn
Corporate tax 8.5bn
- Wholesale and retail 2bn (mom & pop stores paying the most tax!!?)
- Finance 1.9bn

GST 4bn
Propery tax 2bn

67 new co.s listed on SGX

FX strategies

FX carry trade, the most successful of all FX strategies
earned 13% including interest earned per year since 1980

New STI

30 stocks in STI

Creative become small cap

Dry bulk statistics

6500 dry bulk ships in the world, carry 380mn t of stuff

Iron ore usage, China 500mn t

Solar energy cost vs coventional

Solar USD 0.40 / kwh
Conventional USD 0.20 /kwh

Solar is now 2x or 3x more expensive than conventional only

Global SPE market

Semiconductor USD 250bn mkt
Capex USD50bn mkt
SPE USD30bn mkt
Litho USD6bn mkt

Rich Chinese

40 billionaires in China
Combined net worth of 120bn USD

China richest woman Yang Huiyan also richest woman in Asia
Net worth of 16bn USD
Inherited property fr Dad, Country Garden Holdings

China has more billionaires than Japan now

AUM in Singapore

Hedge fund USD 7.7bn 2006
Hedge fund USD 16.5bn 2007 YTD
Incl long only USD 30bn
Japan hedge fund AUM declined fr USD 22bn to USD 17bn

Australia USD 38bn
Hong Kong USD 28bn
Japan USD 17bn
Singapore USD 16bn

Singapore only international hedge fund community, Australia domestic, HK China focus, Japan domestic.

Singapore private banking AUM USD 500bn which serve to support the HF growth

Five mega hedge funds boasting assets of over US$1 billion each.
They include Artradis, Tantallon, Aisling, Broad Peak and LAPP

Airlines vs Singtel

The whole airline industry earned USD 5bn in 2006
Singtel earned USD 2.4bn in Net Profit FY2006

Overseas Singaporeans

150,000 Singaporean overseas
A lot in Australia and New Zealand
20,000 in China and US each

Sovereign wealth

UAE ADIA USD 875bn 1976 Oil
Singapore GIC USD 330bn 1981 Other
Norway Govt Pension USD 324bn 1996 Oil
Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Fund USD 300 Oil
China State FX Invest. Co & Huejing Co. USD 200bn Other
Kuwait Reserve Fund for Future Generation USD 167bn 1953 Oil
Singapore Temasek Holdings USD 100bn 1974 Other
Qatar Qatar Investment Authority USD 40bn Oil/gas
Alaska Permanent Reserve Fund USD 39.4bn Oil
Brunei Brunei Investment Authority USD 30bn 1983 Oil

Average condo price (Tokyo)

2005 49.2mn yen S$615,000 Ratio of condo price to salary = 7.1
2006 51.5mn yen S$644,000 Ratio of condo price to salary = 7.3
2007 67.0mn yen S$837,500 Ratio of condo price to salary = 9.6

all condo prices used roughly 75sqm
ie psf $745 - $1000

HDB median resale prices

1 rm $115,000
2 rm $132,000
3 rm $171,000
4 rm $241,000
5 rm $300,000
Exec $358,000

Ratio of of 5 rm price / annual salary ($78,000) = 3.8
Ratio of Condo price / annual salary = 18

Huge discrepancy!

Singapore salary

45% of household earns below $4000 a mth

32% earns between $4000 to $8000

23% earns more than $8000

Salary vs Housing Prices

Singapore average household income $6260 per mth, $78,000 per yr

2005 ave PSF $500-700 ave selling price $995,000 condo units sold: 14,000
2006 ave PSF $600-800 ave selling price $1,420,000 condo units sold: 20,600

Ave selling price / household income = 18x

Comparison skewed bcos household price does not include HDB prices

Oil pdtn (OPEC)

OPEC has been producing 20-30mn barrels per day for past 10 yrs
98 22-23mn barrels per day
07 25-27mn barrels per day

CPF 2

Singaporeans have S$150,000 in home equity on average

S$35bn in Medisave, medisave is roughly 1/4 of total CPF contribution
ie CPF has S$120-140bn in all (35x4)
120bn / 3mn = $40,000
Average Singaporean has $40,000 in CPF
Average Singaporean needs $90,000 to $120,000 to retire (Age 65-85)

In 2030, 1mn Singaporeans above 65

Venus and Earth

Earth atmosphere has 1% CO2, average temperature is 15c
Venus atmosphere has 99% Co2, average temperature is 450c
Venus's temp is higher than mercury

70mn t of pollutants being released into the atmosphere every day

Indices

Indices are forcing investors to adopt similar strategies in investing.
Encourages a crowding of investment strategies.
May not be a good thing.

Titanium

Titaniumm makes up 15% of aircraft parts
Du Pont and US govt wants to do R&D to reduce Titanium cost by 50-90%
Now Titanium cost 20x more than steel

Lean Singapore Government

Singapore govt least Tax Revenue and least Spending

GST and Other source to rise, Tax to go down

GST will continue to rise

And hopefully tax will go down

Govt Expenses

Total SGD 33bn
Defense SGD 10bn
Education SGD 7bn
Home Affairs SGD 2.6bn
Health SGD 2bn

Devpt Expenses SGD 3bn plus

Civil Servants

Payroll Expenses = SGD 4bn
100,000 Civil servants
Average pay = 40k
Ministers pay = SGD 30mn
Less than 1% of total payroll expenses
50% of civil servant in Education
20% in Home Affairs

Singapore Govt P&L Part 1: LTA

COE dropped fr 0.6bn to 0.08bn SGD. Insignificant part of Govt's revenue.

ERP contributes 0.09bn SGD only.

Conclusion: LTA is increasing ERP not bcos they want to make money, but bcos they think it can REALLY solve congestion. And the no. shows so. Traffic speed increasing after ERP is put on.

But anedoctal evidence shows it is still congested.

Why?

Error in measurement? Biased study to show that ERP works? Mystery unsolved...

LTA Revenue SGD400mn or so, bulk of it comes from management fees? Dunno what fees is that?

LTA is making losses.

Singapore roads 3.5km / square km. HK 2, London 9, NY, 12, Tokyo 11.5. Singapore needs more roads.

Global beer consumption

170mn kili litres of beer consumed in the world

Hedge fund return

1987 to 2004 15% return per yr
Bay Pond 40% per yr in 10 yrs

Harvard Endowment Return

Harvard Endowment Return 18.4%pa over 5 yrs 2002-2007
Endowment Benchmark Return 13.8% over 5 yrs 2002-2007
S&P Return 17% over 5 yrs 2002-2007

CPF

Singaporeans average have 55k SGD in CPF at retirement.
if ave sum in CPF is ard 55k as well
CPF has 100bn SGD of money

Singapore housing stats

880,000 HDB flats
smallest HDB estate Bukit Timah 2400 flats
largest HDB estate Tampines 61,500 flats

10,000 detach houses
20,000 semi detach
37,000 terrace houses
60,000 private apts
100,000 condos
9,500 executive condos

Tech pdts statistics

Copiers 4mn units USD 30bn
Laser printers 20m units USD 12bn
Inkjet printers 200-250mn units
PC 250mn units USD 250bn
TV 150mn units
LCD TV 50mn units
Mobile phones 1bn units USD 200bn
DSC 100mn units
SLR 7mn units

National Day Speech stuff

23% of Singaporeans in one cohort reach university
30% targeted in the future (hence 4th university)
Every extra yr spent in school increase income by 14%

420 suicides in Singapore, 0.1% of population
30,000 suicides in Japan 0.025% of population

Tiger Woods earns USD100 mn per yr
No.2 Phil Mickelson only earn half of Tiger Woods
Reason for the great income divide globally

Hotels with F1 view

Sept 24 -28

Swisshotel
Raffles the Plaza
Pan Pacific
Fullerton
Ritz Carlton
Oriental
Marina Mandarin
Raffles Hotel
Conrad
Carlton Hotel
Peninsula-Excelsior

Rates: S$250-700

Asian cities office rental

Hong Kong 3% 180 USD/sqf/yr 16.4% YoY
Tokyo 3% 119 USD/sqf/yr 7.4% YoY
Singapore 2.6% 103 USD/sqf/yr 54.3% YoY
Mumbai 4% 100 USD/sqf/yr 17.2% YoY
Delhi 0% 93 USD/USD/sqf/yr 19% YoY
Shanghai 2.8% 66 USD/sqf/yr 6.1% YoY
Sydney 4.3% 61.5 USD/sqf/yr 7.4% YoY
Beijing 11.2% 55 USD/sqf/yr 2.5% YoY
Taipei 9.6% 43 USD/sqf/yr 0.3% YoY
Bangalore 7.2% 29 USD/sqf/yr 25% YoY

S&P 500

40% of S&P OP comes from outside US

Solar

10% of national electricity supply from solar cells by 2030
Current 0.1%

Domestic solar cell makers supply to 50% of global market

Solar energy conversion efficiency only 7-20% (20% not yet achievable, only in theory)

Solar pdtn eqmt
CVD unit (most impt)
spluttering
laser scribe
cleaning
Requires 1ha of space, produce 40MW of energy in 1 yr