China savings

USD 470 per worker in social safety net.

China needs to put more public money into social savings to encourage take off in private consumption.

China CPI basket

30% food
20% housing
But not prices, but mortgage interest rates and utilities

China credit bubble impact to Singapore

DBS loan in 2Q 2011 $50bn
Ocbc $15bn
Uob $8bn

9% of residential property bought by Chinese

28% of all transactions by foreigners

Shadow banking in China S$815bn

60% to SMEs

Spas in Singapore

1200 spas and massage parlor in Singapore.

60 of them operate 24 hours.

Chinese internet

Online sales US$60bn

360buy sales US$1.6bn in 2010

Taobao to handle US$160bn in transaction in 2012

Taobao share dropped to 75%
Jingdong (360buy) is 4%

De Beers, Botswana, Diamonds

Botswana produces 21% of global diamond output
2/3 of De Beers output

Govt has 15% of De Beers JV in Botswana
Govt wants to have the right to sell 10% of diamond mined in the country
Currently De Beers is selling everything
US$480mn revenue from Diamonds - 2010 for Botswana

Asia Investment Banking

2010
UBS No.1 net rev US$574m
CS
GS
JPM US$573
DB US$409

UBS mkt shr 5%
UBS owns 20% of defunct Beijing Securities, has licence in China
can underwrite Chinese bonds and equities and trade equities

Investment banks staff churn 16% per yr

Patents

2010, 160,000 patents (international)

US 28%
Japan 20%
Germany 11%
China 8%
Korea 6%
France 4%
UK 3%
Holland 2.5%
Swiss 2.2%
Sweden 1.9%
Denmark 1.9%
Others 15%

China YoY growth 56%
Korea 20%
Japan 8%
Germany 2%
US -2%

Net cash

Closing in on 50% of Jp co. are in net cash position

Nikkei

LNG import to Japan

Malaysia 20%
Australia 19%
Indonesia 18%
Qatar 11%
Russia 9%
Brunei 8%
UAE 7%
Oman 4%

US shale gas - target to import this

Unmarried men

In 2030, there will be 60mn men not being able to get married due to distorted male female ratio in Chin and India

New grad salaries in Sg 2011

Degree S$2700
Masters $3000

From ST

Marriages

50% of marriages in Western countries end in divorce
50% of all children are born out of wedlock in Western countries

Mean age of marriage - 30 yrs old for women, risen sharply

20-30% of women will not get married in most Asian countries

Reason: women in the work 40 hrs, and do housework for another 30 hrs after marriage
men - only 3 hrs of housework

Global smartphone market share

Global smartphone market share

Android 48%
iOS 19%
Symbian 17%
Rimm 11%
MSFT 2.4%

NBA vs CBA

Chinese CBA player earns 300-500k yuan or 50-80k USD

Top players earn 1 mn yuan

But NBA average salary 5 mn USD

ASEAN trade

Only 25% of export and import are within ASEAN

Asia PE and EV/EBITDA range

From 2001 to 2010
Asia Shiller PE range 10-15x (Peak 18x in 2007)
EV/EBITDA range 5.5-9x (Peak 12x in 2007)

Asia dividends

US$36bn paid in 2002
US$147bn paid in 2010

Manufacturing as % of Economy

2008

China 33%
Korea 25%
Singapore 25%
Japan 22%
Germany 22%
Italy 18%
Brazil 15%
US 13%
UK 13%
France 5%

Indonesia millionaires and Singapore

There are 60,000 millionaires in Indonesia and the total wealth in the
country stood at $1.8 trillion in 2010, according to Credit Suisse Global
Wealth report released last year.

Indonesia's average wealth per adult has increased the fastest in the
Asia-Pacific region since 2000, growing fivefold to $12,112, according to the
report.

Nuclear

440 reactors in operation
61 under construction
158 planned
326 proposed

Custodian Banks (old)

Bank of New York Mellon, world's largest custodian bank
USD 21trn AUM, 20% of all securities held worldwide

State Street Bank, 2nd largest custodian bank
USD 15trn AUM, 15% of all securities held worldwide

US Share Buyback

2010 share Buyback $174 bn

Cash level $1,081 bn

S&P500 dividend roughly $40bn in 2010

Libya

Gadhafi killed 200,000 Libyans or 5% of population over his rule of 42 yrs.

Estimated to have killed more Americans other than Osama.

Ultimate responsibility for Pam Am 103 bombing: death of 270 innocent civilians.

Rent for expats comparison

Tokyo US$4352
Moscow US$3500
Hong Kong US$2830
London US$2824
Singapore YS$2810

Two bedroom apartment
Roughly 80sqm

By ECA International

Chinese corruption

147,000 officials punished for corruption in 2007.

Of which 3-4 were part of 370 leading officials of the country

Casino Levy in Singapore

Govt collected $130mn in levy for first 9 mths
ie 3,500 Singaporeans visit the casinos every day

Levy at $100 bcos it makes it more expensive than to travel to Batam

Genting does not allow Muslims to go
Korea has 14 casinos but only 1 for locals

POSCO

POSCO USD 12bn plant in India being blocked by India's environmental ministry.
It will be the biggest FDI in India if it is successful.
India despite having a poor record on environment, block a potentially good FDI bcos of politics.
At the same time hurting the development of the country.

Taxi booking

24mn taxi booking in 2010
913,000 trips made per day
7% of all trips are taxi booking

But we all know taxi booking is a stupid system
Forces the passenger to book and pay up

25,000 taxis in Singapore
Each taxi on average make 37 trips per day

Say average trip is $10
Each taxi makes $370
Each driver makes $185
Petrol and rental $65
ie driver makes $120 per day
or $3,600 per month

US Debt

Interest payment to federal revenue
2010 8.6%
2020 17.6%
All else equal

Rating
2020 A
2025 BBB
2035 Junk