In 2007, ballooned to USD 600 trn (11x global GDP)
In 1997, it was USD 75trn (2.5x global GDP)
Part of the reason for the credit crunch now
Thursday, December 25, 2008
Credit growth
Post war credit growth 9% annually
Banking crisis will reduce this to 1% in US
Impact to GDP negative 1.5%
Banking crisis will reduce this to 1% in US
Impact to GDP negative 1.5%
Banking crisis
Average downturn for recent banking crisis = 4 yrs
This one started in July 2007
ie recovery in 2011?
Average cost to public purse = 16% of GDP
Japan's case =24% of GDP
US has put 7% of GDP to rescue, if successful, actually much better than average and would save US a lot of trouble
This one started in July 2007
ie recovery in 2011?
Average cost to public purse = 16% of GDP
Japan's case =24% of GDP
US has put 7% of GDP to rescue, if successful, actually much better than average and would save US a lot of trouble
Signs of Colon Cancer
1. Blood in stool (dried red colour)
2. Thin and small faeces
3. Need to visit loo very often
4. Anemic
5. Constipation and diarrhea at the same time
1 in 3 humans will get cancer in their lifetime
2. Thin and small faeces
3. Need to visit loo very often
4. Anemic
5. Constipation and diarrhea at the same time
1 in 3 humans will get cancer in their lifetime
Lithium Ion Battery
Sanyo 25%
Sony 16%
BYD (China) 13%
Panasonic 11%
SDI (Korea) 10%
LG Chem 9%
Others 16%
800mn units (2004)
USD 3.5 per unit
USD 3bn mkt
Sony 16%
BYD (China) 13%
Panasonic 11%
SDI (Korea) 10%
LG Chem 9%
Others 16%
800mn units (2004)
USD 3.5 per unit
USD 3bn mkt
Wednesday, December 24, 2008
Iron Ore and Coal
Worldwide pdtn 720mn t
CVRD 33%
Rio Tinto 23%
BHP 16%
Others 28%
Top 3 players 72%
BHP (BMA) 26%
Xstrada 7%
Rio Tinto 7%
Anglo 7%
Other Australia players 13%
Elk Valley (Canada) 12%
US 10%
China 5%
Other 13%
Top 5 players 59%
CVRD 33%
Rio Tinto 23%
BHP 16%
Others 28%
Top 3 players 72%
BHP (BMA) 26%
Xstrada 7%
Rio Tinto 7%
Anglo 7%
Other Australia players 13%
Elk Valley (Canada) 12%
US 10%
China 5%
Other 13%
Top 5 players 59%
Visitors to Zoo, Bird Park, Night Safari
In 2004
zoo has an average of 1.5 million visitors,
bird park, 900,000,
and the Night Safari, 850,000.
They bring in an estimated $60 million in revenue
One-time entry fee
Zoo and bird park is $14 for adults and $7 for children
Night Safari, it is $18 for adults and $9 for children
Wildlife Reserves has increased the family membership fees
Friends of the Zoo Friends of the Birds packages from $87 and $81 a year to $100 Friends of Night Safari package $150
New membership package called Wildlife Unlimited
Annual fee of $240, two adults and three children under 12 years old can
get access to all the three attractions any number of times
Target one million members in the next three months
In 2007
Jurong BirdPark 830,000 visitors
Singapore Zoo 1.5 million visitors
Night Safari, 1.1 million
Their combined turnover: $77 million
In 2008, revenue $88 million, profits mgn 20%
Ms Chiang, 57, a former Nominated Member of Parliament and senior vice-president of luxury hotel chain Banyan Tree, is chairwoman of WildLife Reserve Singapore.
Predecessor Robert Kwan
Ms Fanny Lai, group chief executive officer.
Three parks have been venues for about 50 weddings a year for the last three years.
Ms Chiang's vision is for the parks to reach out to couples, elderlys, businessmen etc.
WRS introduced the 3-in-1 Park Hopper ticket, which buys entry to all three parks once within a month at $40 for adults and $20 for children under 13.
'Wildlife Unlimited Plus' family memberships at $430, which will give a family of two adults and three children unlimited entry to all three attractions.
1.8x increase over 4 yrs?
zoo has an average of 1.5 million visitors,
bird park, 900,000,
and the Night Safari, 850,000.
They bring in an estimated $60 million in revenue
One-time entry fee
Zoo and bird park is $14 for adults and $7 for children
Night Safari, it is $18 for adults and $9 for children
Wildlife Reserves has increased the family membership fees
Friends of the Zoo Friends of the Birds packages from $87 and $81 a year to $100 Friends of Night Safari package $150
New membership package called Wildlife Unlimited
Annual fee of $240, two adults and three children under 12 years old can
get access to all the three attractions any number of times
Target one million members in the next three months
In 2007
Jurong BirdPark 830,000 visitors
Singapore Zoo 1.5 million visitors
Night Safari, 1.1 million
Their combined turnover: $77 million
In 2008, revenue $88 million, profits mgn 20%
Ms Chiang, 57, a former Nominated Member of Parliament and senior vice-president of luxury hotel chain Banyan Tree, is chairwoman of WildLife Reserve Singapore.
Predecessor Robert Kwan
Ms Fanny Lai, group chief executive officer.
Three parks have been venues for about 50 weddings a year for the last three years.
Ms Chiang's vision is for the parks to reach out to couples, elderlys, businessmen etc.
WRS introduced the 3-in-1 Park Hopper ticket, which buys entry to all three parks once within a month at $40 for adults and $20 for children under 13.
'Wildlife Unlimited Plus' family memberships at $430, which will give a family of two adults and three children unlimited entry to all three attractions.
1.8x increase over 4 yrs?
Singapore Flyer
Hit 1mn visitors in 5 mths
On target to hit 2.5mn visitors in first yr
Ticket sales revenue $75mn
Cost of flyer $240mn
Hence ticket sales can cover building cost in 3.2yrs
Factoring in running costs, probably DCF positive in 5-6yrs
This is probably the best case scenario...
However if visitor no.s drop to by 50%, revenue $38mn
Building cost payback 6.5yrs, running cost included 11-12yrs
i.e. bad investment
Maximum revenue $130mn, 4.4mn visitors, payback 1.8yrs
20 businesses at Flyer mostly losing money bcos pple just go for ride and go home
Qns to ask
What is running cost of flyer?
Rental revenue? (currently earning as landlord but not sustainable bcos most shops will close if this goes on...)
On target to hit 2.5mn visitors in first yr
Ticket sales revenue $75mn
Cost of flyer $240mn
Hence ticket sales can cover building cost in 3.2yrs
Factoring in running costs, probably DCF positive in 5-6yrs
This is probably the best case scenario...
However if visitor no.s drop to by 50%, revenue $38mn
Building cost payback 6.5yrs, running cost included 11-12yrs
i.e. bad investment
Maximum revenue $130mn, 4.4mn visitors, payback 1.8yrs
20 businesses at Flyer mostly losing money bcos pple just go for ride and go home
Qns to ask
What is running cost of flyer?
Rental revenue? (currently earning as landlord but not sustainable bcos most shops will close if this goes on...)
Sg population and PR stats
100,000 old residents in Singapore
6,000 foreign brides in Singapore
2,000 Singaporeans over 1mn in annual salary
24,000 marriages each yr in Singapore
30,000 new PRs 2000-2004
50,000 new PRs 2005-2006
6,000 foreign brides in Singapore
2,000 Singaporeans over 1mn in annual salary
24,000 marriages each yr in Singapore
30,000 new PRs 2000-2004
50,000 new PRs 2005-2006
Friday, December 19, 2008
Asia Pharma
Total USD 50bn mkt
China 20bn CAGR 20%
Korea 11bn 9%
India 8.7bn 13%
Taiwan 3.6bn 3%
Thailand 2.7bn 13%
Philippines 2.4bn 9%
Indonesia 2.3bn 10%
Hong Kong 0.7bn 11%
Expected to grow to 100bn in 2012
China 20bn CAGR 20%
Korea 11bn 9%
India 8.7bn 13%
Taiwan 3.6bn 3%
Thailand 2.7bn 13%
Philippines 2.4bn 9%
Indonesia 2.3bn 10%
Hong Kong 0.7bn 11%
Expected to grow to 100bn in 2012
Saturday, December 13, 2008
SIA fleet
In its fleet, Singapore Airlines has 90 Boeing planes of different models and 11 Airbus planes, including six A380s. The airline has also placed a firm order for one Boeing 777-300ER, with an option of purchasing another 13 of the planes.
100 planes in total
100 planes in total
Friday, December 5, 2008
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
Solar Industry
Total global pdtn 5500 MW
Q-cells 9.1%
Sharp 8.5%
Suntech 7.9%
Kyocera 4.8%
First Solar 4.7%
Motech 4.1%
SolarWorld 4.0%
Sanyo 3.9%
Yingli 3.4%
JA Solar 3.1%
Others 46.6%
Q-cells 9.1%
Sharp 8.5%
Suntech 7.9%
Kyocera 4.8%
First Solar 4.7%
Motech 4.1%
SolarWorld 4.0%
Sanyo 3.9%
Yingli 3.4%
JA Solar 3.1%
Others 46.6%
Sunday, November 23, 2008
S&P 500 in 1957 and now
Of the 500 co.s in S&P in 1947, only 74 are still in it 40 yrs later
Only a few disappeared via M&A, most others shranked or went bankrupted.
Only a few disappeared via M&A, most others shranked or went bankrupted.
Temasek Holdings
Temasek, which oversees $130 billion, said senior management has volunteered to take a 15 percent to 25 percent pay cut. The key managers will provide almost 90 percent of the savings from the companywide cut, it said in an e-mailed response yesterday to a Bloomberg News query.
Administrative expenses for the group, which includes Temasek's share of the companies it invests in, rose 6.4 percent to S$8.6 billion ($5.6 billion) in the year ended March, making up 10 percent of revenue. Profit doubled for the year to S$18.2 billion as sales of energy and Chinese banking assets countered slowing returns from stock market investments, Temasek said in its annual report released on Aug. 26.
Administrative expenses for the group, which includes Temasek's share of the companies it invests in, rose 6.4 percent to S$8.6 billion ($5.6 billion) in the year ended March, making up 10 percent of revenue. Profit doubled for the year to S$18.2 billion as sales of energy and Chinese banking assets countered slowing returns from stock market investments, Temasek said in its annual report released on Aug. 26.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Sg banks vs Citibank
UOB mkt cap 18bn SGD
OCBC mkt cap 14bn SGD
DBS mkt cap 14bn SGD
Total 46bn SGD = 31bn USD
Citibank mkt cap 25bn USD
The three big banks in Singapore is worth more than Citibank!
OCBC mkt cap 14bn SGD
DBS mkt cap 14bn SGD
Total 46bn SGD = 31bn USD
Citibank mkt cap 25bn USD
The three big banks in Singapore is worth more than Citibank!
Car ownership
USA has a car ownership ratio of just over 100%--meaning there is just over 1 car for each of the 240mn Americans old enough to drive.
Canadians, Europeans and Japanese only have an ownership ratio of 74%
Singapore is roughly at 20% by my own calculations
(500,000 / 2.5mn)
Canadians, Europeans and Japanese only have an ownership ratio of 74%
Singapore is roughly at 20% by my own calculations
(500,000 / 2.5mn)
S&P 500 - 1/3 of stocks cannot meet criteria
1/3 of the entire S&P 500 Index is now NOT even qualified to be in the index - 186 stocks now have a market cap below $4bn (which is the minimum requirement for membership)
singapore crime stats
Almost all murders are solved
Ballpark 1,000 crimes for housebreaking, robbery, motor theft, molest etc
3,000 cheating crimes
100 rape cases
Unsolved murders (US)
In 2004, there were 16,137 cases of murder or nonnegligent manslaughter in the United States. Because 37.4% of these cases went uncleared, around 6,035 people "got away with murder" that year.
Given our better Government, probably Singapore has a lower %?
ie 30% of crimes are unsolved?
Given our better Government, probably Singapore has a lower %?
ie 30% of crimes are unsolved?
Monday, November 17, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Crisis mgmt cost
According to a recent IMF survey of 42 banking crises since 1970, total fiscal costs (net of recoveries) associated with “crisis management” averaged 13.3% of GDP, with bank recapitalizations alone averaging 6.0% of GDP. Given the size of the US economy, that would suggest that a total net fiscal cost for the current crisis of $1.9 trillion would be in line with historical averages, including $866bn in bank recapitalization.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
EPS estimates
David Dreman and Michael Berry in a study published in the FAJ in 1995 and subsequently updated in 1996 examined brokerage analysts quarterly earnings projections as compared to the actual earnings reported between 1972 and 1996. Estimates for the quarter were usually made in the previous 3 months and analysts could revise their estimates up to 2 weeks before quarter end … in all, 94,251 consensus forecasts were used requiring at least 4 separate analyst estimates before including a consensus number in the study. The average EPS estimate error for the study was 44%. In the last eight years of the study the average error was 50% and in two of those years, 57% and 65%, respectively.
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Hedge fund withdrawals
Combined with investment losses, hedge fund industry assets may shrink to $1.3 trillion, a 32 percent drop from the peak in June.
ie 300-400bn of asset withdrawal from markets caused this 30-40% decline
This is logical considering leverage used is 10-20x
Judging from these no.s another 300-400bn needs to be cleaned up, ie another 30-40% decline from here probably?
Investors withdrew a record $43 billion from hedge funds last month, more to come probably.
Average hedge fund down 18 percent this year. A bit too light... probably wrong no...Thursday, October 23, 2008
Tobacco
Almost 40 million people have died of tobacco-related diseases since 1999, according to a ``death clock''.
One person dies every 5.8 seconds from causes linked to tobacco.
Tobacco use will kill 1 billion people this century, up 10-fold from the
prior 100 years
One person dies every 5.8 seconds from causes linked to tobacco.
Tobacco use will kill 1 billion people this century, up 10-fold from the
prior 100 years
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Lehman mini bonds
50,000 over investors in HK bought USD 1bn worth of mini bonds from Lehman.
1,000 of them protested public to seek explanation from authorities.
Singapore - my guess, probably 60% of HK's problem
ie 30,000 investors, investing USD 600mn in mini bonds
ie 1bn SGD
DBS shareholder equity is SGD 23bn, net profit is 2bn SGD
So theoretically, they can repay the investors out of goodwill with little impact.
Eg. Repayment 20% over 5 yrs, SGD 200mn per yr -> 0.9% dent to their equity and 10% dent on net profit (quite big though)
Of course, they won't...
1,000 of them protested public to seek explanation from authorities.
Singapore - my guess, probably 60% of HK's problem
ie 30,000 investors, investing USD 600mn in mini bonds
ie 1bn SGD
DBS shareholder equity is SGD 23bn, net profit is 2bn SGD
So theoretically, they can repay the investors out of goodwill with little impact.
Eg. Repayment 20% over 5 yrs, SGD 200mn per yr -> 0.9% dent to their equity and 10% dent on net profit (quite big though)
Of course, they won't...
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
China coal mines
China produce 2.4bn t of coal in 2007
Coal provides 70% of China's energy needs
China is the world's biggest consumer of coal
2,000 pple die in China's coal mines per year in 07 and 08
Coal provides 70% of China's energy needs
China is the world's biggest consumer of coal
2,000 pple die in China's coal mines per year in 07 and 08
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Monday, September 8, 2008
Penny stocks in SGX
787 listed entities on the SGX (excluding warrants)
658 or 84 per cent trade for less that $1
SGX does not have a rule similar to Nasdaq's
shares trade below US$1 for 30 consecutive business days faces delisting
72% of shares trade less than 50c
47% of shares trade less than 20c (minimum allowable IPO price)
50 China stocks that form the FTSE ST China index
Only four sell for above $1
92 per cent of SGX-listed China stocks are pennies.
SGX-listed China sector of sub-standard investment grade.
658 or 84 per cent trade for less that $1
SGX does not have a rule similar to Nasdaq's
shares trade below US$1 for 30 consecutive business days faces delisting
72% of shares trade less than 50c
47% of shares trade less than 20c (minimum allowable IPO price)
50 China stocks that form the FTSE ST China index
Only four sell for above $1
92 per cent of SGX-listed China stocks are pennies.
SGX-listed China sector of sub-standard investment grade.
Sports, rental HDB, Emigration
40,000 HDB rented flats
$5mn spent on table tennis and some sports
$200mn total sports budget over 10 yrs
1,000 Singaporean emigrate every year
$5mn spent on table tennis and some sports
$200mn total sports budget over 10 yrs
1,000 Singaporean emigrate every year
Thursday, August 21, 2008
Wednesday, August 20, 2008
PRs and New Citizens
57,000 new PRs in 2007
14,600 new citizens in 2007
13,200 in 2006
12,900 in 2005
8,000 plus in 2001-2004
1 mn foreigners in Sg, of which S-pass and work permit 200,000 plus
Less than 5% of foreigners will become citizens
14,600 new citizens in 2007
13,200 in 2006
12,900 in 2005
8,000 plus in 2001-2004
1 mn foreigners in Sg, of which S-pass and work permit 200,000 plus
Less than 5% of foreigners will become citizens
LNG
World uses 165mn t of LNG
Cost ranges from $15-$20 per mn BTU
$21 per mn BTU equivalent of crude oil at $124
Biggest users Japan 67mn t (20mn used by Tepco)
Cost ranges from $15-$20 per mn BTU
$21 per mn BTU equivalent of crude oil at $124
Biggest users Japan 67mn t (20mn used by Tepco)
Sunday, August 10, 2008
SME workforce
Singapore has 130,000 SMEs
employing 60% of Singapore's 2.15mn workforce
ie 1.29mn people work in SMEs
employing 60% of Singapore's 2.15mn workforce
ie 1.29mn people work in SMEs
Monday, July 28, 2008
Parking
London $93
Amsterdam $90
London West End $85
Moscow $84
Vienna $84
Sydney $74
Tokyo $63
NY Mid Town $54
HK $38
Singapore $27
N. Delhi $3.4
Jakarta $2.6
Amsterdam $90
London West End $85
Moscow $84
Vienna $84
Sydney $74
Tokyo $63
NY Mid Town $54
HK $38
Singapore $27
N. Delhi $3.4
Jakarta $2.6
Hawker centre 2
$1.2mn temporary site set up
170 out of 380 hawkers opt to continue business at temporary site
Each hawker pays S$5000 to 9800 for 16 mths of usage
Assuming average hawker pays $7500 ie month rental is $625
170 x 7500 = $1,275,000
Zero govt subsidy for temporary site?
170 out of 380 hawkers opt to continue business at temporary site
Each hawker pays S$5000 to 9800 for 16 mths of usage
Assuming average hawker pays $7500 ie month rental is $625
170 x 7500 = $1,275,000
Zero govt subsidy for temporary site?
Hawker centre 1
S$10.4mn upgrade
In order to cover this, hawkers may have to fork out $800,000 per yr
380 hawker stalls
Each hawker forks out $2200 per yr, or $180 per mth
Will Govt ask for just $180 or more?
In order to cover this, hawkers may have to fork out $800,000 per yr
380 hawker stalls
Each hawker forks out $2200 per yr, or $180 per mth
Will Govt ask for just $180 or more?
Thursday, July 24, 2008
RE land and construction cost
Land cost $200-250psf
Constructuion cost $300-350psf
ie ppty built in 2007-2008 cannot be cheaper than $600psf
Construction cost rose from $250-300psf to $300-350psf fr Q1 to Q2
Constructuion cost $300-350psf
ie ppty built in 2007-2008 cannot be cheaper than $600psf
Construction cost rose from $250-300psf to $300-350psf fr Q1 to Q2
No. of companies in Singapore
There are 8,500 co.s in Singapore including SMEs.
Most of the 50 fastest growing co.s (SMEs) are expanding overseas with the help of IE Singapore.
Most of the 50 fastest growing co.s (SMEs) are expanding overseas with the help of IE Singapore.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
Tuesday, July 22, 2008
Calories
Per day needs
2500 kcal
2000 mg of Na
400 mg Cholestrol
0.5kg = 3500 kcal
low calorie food
fish porridge 250 kcal
fish ball dry 360kcal
yong tau fu (soup) 200 kcal
beef noodle dry 400 kcal
Fish slice dry
Lei cha fan
no soft drinks
tea w sugar 60kcal
normal sweet drinks 100kcal
have green tea or barley for drinks
2500 kcal
2000 mg of Na
400 mg Cholestrol
0.5kg = 3500 kcal
low calorie food
fish porridge 250 kcal
fish ball dry 360kcal
yong tau fu (soup) 200 kcal
beef noodle dry 400 kcal
Fish slice dry
Lei cha fan
no soft drinks
tea w sugar 60kcal
normal sweet drinks 100kcal
have green tea or barley for drinks
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Berkshire Hathaway
Revenue breakdown
Insurance 30%
Mclane (distributor) 24%
MidAmerican (power) 10%
Investment and derivatives 5%
Shaw Industries 5%
Manufacturing 12%
Retail 3%
Servicees 6%
Cash (2007) USD 44.3 bn
Equity investment (2007) USD 75 bn
Shareholders’ equity (2007) USD 121 bn
Revenue (2007) USD 118 bn
NP (2007) USD 13 bn
Taxes (2007) USD 6.5 bn
Float from insurance USD 59bn
Book value growth only 10% in the past 8 yrs
26% in 1990s
29% in 1980s
19 staff at HQ
Insurance 30%
Mclane (distributor) 24%
MidAmerican (power) 10%
Investment and derivatives 5%
Shaw Industries 5%
Manufacturing 12%
Retail 3%
Servicees 6%
Cash (2007) USD 44.3 bn
Equity investment (2007) USD 75 bn
Shareholders’ equity (2007) USD 121 bn
Revenue (2007) USD 118 bn
NP (2007) USD 13 bn
Taxes (2007) USD 6.5 bn
Float from insurance USD 59bn
Book value growth only 10% in the past 8 yrs
26% in 1990s
29% in 1980s
19 staff at HQ
Short selling
USD 1trn of equities on loan globally (possibly for short selling)
Global equities loss USD 11trn since last year's peak
Short selling reached 5% of stocks at NYSE
130/30 strategy to grow from USD 140bn in 2007 to USD 2trn by 2010
Global equities loss USD 11trn since last year's peak
Short selling reached 5% of stocks at NYSE
130/30 strategy to grow from USD 140bn in 2007 to USD 2trn by 2010
Fannie, Freddie and US Mortgage
US Mortgage market is USD 12trn
Fannie and Freddie holds 40% of mkt ie USD 5trn
Of USD 12trn, 1.5trn is mortgage related securities
Fannie and Freddie holds 40% of mkt ie USD 5trn
Of USD 12trn, 1.5trn is mortgage related securities
Friday, July 18, 2008
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
Desalination
There are 13,000 desalination plants globally.
Growth rate at 12% per yr.
Desalination produces 14mn cubic metres of water daily.
Desalination provides less than 1% of global water consumption.
North Africa (Libya and Algeria), uses about 6% of worldwide capacity.
United States uses desalinated water (6.5%), specially in California and parts of Florida
Middle East, (S. Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain), uses about 70% of worldwide desalination capacity.
Growth rate at 12% per yr.
Desalination produces 14mn cubic metres of water daily.
Desalination provides less than 1% of global water consumption.
North Africa (Libya and Algeria), uses about 6% of worldwide capacity.
United States uses desalinated water (6.5%), specially in California and parts of Florida
Middle East, (S. Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain), uses about 70% of worldwide desalination capacity.
Monday, July 7, 2008
Water in Singapore
Singapore needs 1.4mn cubic metres of water daily
Will grow to 1.8mn cubic metres in 3-5 yrs
Singaporean uses 157 litres of water per day.
Target to bring to 155, used to be 165 litres per day.
Desalination provides 10% current needs
Recycling NEwater 15% of current needs
Cost of desalination 80c per cubic metre
Cost of normal water 20c per cubic metre
PUB sells water to everyone at 120c per cubic metre
Will grow to 1.8mn cubic metres in 3-5 yrs
Singaporean uses 157 litres of water per day.
Target to bring to 155, used to be 165 litres per day.
Desalination provides 10% current needs
Recycling NEwater 15% of current needs
Cost of desalination 80c per cubic metre
Cost of normal water 20c per cubic metre
PUB sells water to everyone at 120c per cubic metre
Monday, June 23, 2008
Thursday, June 19, 2008
Babies
23mn babies in India every year
16mn babies in China
1mn babies in Japan
40,000 babies in Singapore
16mn babies in China
1mn babies in Japan
40,000 babies in Singapore
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Freight cost
Freight transportation cost of shipping 1 container has tripled from $2000 to close t0 $6000 today.
Tuesday, June 10, 2008
Expat schools
Australian International
Lorong Chuan
1800 students
3 to 18 yrs old
$21,000 to $26,000
No waiting list
German European
Bukit Tinggi
1000 students
1.5 to 18 yrs old
$19,000 to $23,000
No waiting list
Tanglin Trust
Portsdown Rd
2250 students
3 to 18 yrs old
$20,000 to $25,000
1 to 2 yrs
Lycee Francais
Ang Mo Kio Ave 3
1400 students
2 to 18 yrs old
$11,000 to $21,000
50 children
DPS International
Aroozoo Avenue
250 students
4 to 17 yrs old
$4,200 to $5,700
3 mths
NPS International
Chai Chee Lane
212 students
4 to 15 yrs old
$7,800 to $11,400
None
United World College
Dover and Ang Mo Kio
2900 students
4 to 18 yrs old
$19,500 to $24,400
9 mths
Lorong Chuan
1800 students
3 to 18 yrs old
$21,000 to $26,000
No waiting list
German European
Bukit Tinggi
1000 students
1.5 to 18 yrs old
$19,000 to $23,000
No waiting list
Tanglin Trust
Portsdown Rd
2250 students
3 to 18 yrs old
$20,000 to $25,000
1 to 2 yrs
Lycee Francais
Ang Mo Kio Ave 3
1400 students
2 to 18 yrs old
$11,000 to $21,000
50 children
DPS International
Aroozoo Avenue
250 students
4 to 17 yrs old
$4,200 to $5,700
3 mths
NPS International
Chai Chee Lane
212 students
4 to 15 yrs old
$7,800 to $11,400
None
United World College
Dover and Ang Mo Kio
2900 students
4 to 18 yrs old
$19,500 to $24,400
9 mths
Friday, June 6, 2008
Singapore Office RE details
Floor space average 100,000 to 200,000 sqf
Price average $1,800 psf
Absolute price average SGD 500mn
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
Oil producing nations
Saudi Arabia gains from oil every yr USD 70bn
Saudi Arabia produces 20% of oil in the world
Oil producing nations gain USD 350bn per yr
Saudi Arabia produces 20% of oil in the world
Oil producing nations gain USD 350bn per yr
Stainless steel and Nickel
Stainless steel worldwide demand is 28mn t
Top player 12% mkt shr
Top 3 players 34%
Top 6 players 61%
Production cost for Nickel is $10-$12, nickel prices should not fall further than $12
Nickel accounts for 50% of stainless steel cost
Tuesday, May 27, 2008
SMU grad starting salary
Class of 2007 average $3,040
Class of 2006 average $2,850
Class of 2007 top 20 per cent $5,600.
Class of 2007 top 12 per cent $4,000 and $10,000 a month
one in eight graduates or 69 of them from across all degree programmes
9 are making between $8,000 and $10,000 a month
mostly from investment banking or management consulting
Class of 2006 average $2,850
Class of 2007 top 20 per cent $5,600.
Class of 2007 top 12 per cent $4,000 and $10,000 a month
one in eight graduates or 69 of them from across all degree programmes
9 are making between $8,000 and $10,000 a month
mostly from investment banking or management consulting
Wednesday, May 21, 2008
Tuesday, May 20, 2008
Monday, May 19, 2008
Thursday, May 8, 2008
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Monday, May 5, 2008
Most expensive wines
Single red bottle (drinkable) USD 5,800 - Romanee Conti 1990
Single red bottle (undrinable) USD 160,000 - Chateau Lafite 1787 bears Thomas Jefferson's initials
Single white bottle (drinkable) USD 23,929 - Le Montrachet (Romanee Conti) 1978
Single white bottle (undrinable) USD 56,588 - Chateau d'Yquem 1787 bears Thomas Jefferson's initials
More
Single red bottle (undrinable) USD 160,000 - Chateau Lafite 1787 bears Thomas Jefferson's initials
Single white bottle (drinkable) USD 23,929 - Le Montrachet (Romanee Conti) 1978
Single white bottle (undrinable) USD 56,588 - Chateau d'Yquem 1787 bears Thomas Jefferson's initials
More
World's most expensive painting
No.5 Jackson Pollock USD 140mn
Portrait of Adele Bloch-Bauer Gustav Klimt USD 135mn
Mao Andy Warhol USD 120mn
Garçon à la Pipe Pablo Picasso USD 104mn
Portrait of Adele Bloch-Bauer Gustav Klimt USD 135mn
Mao Andy Warhol USD 120mn
Garçon à la Pipe Pablo Picasso USD 104mn
Online ads (US) mkt
Mkt size USD 25.9bn
Google USD 7.9bn
Yahoo USD 3.6bn
MSN USD 1.7bn
AOL USD 1.5bn
Others USD 11.1bn
Google USD 7.9bn
Yahoo USD 3.6bn
MSN USD 1.7bn
AOL USD 1.5bn
Others USD 11.1bn
Thursday, May 1, 2008
DRAM industry
Major players shr OPM 4Q06 OPM 4Q07
Samsung 32% 12% 4%
Hynix 20% 16% -30%
Elpida 15% 10% -29%
Qimonda 12% 6% -110%
Micron 12% -2% -57%
Crappy industry, stay 500 miles away!
Samsung 32% 12% 4%
Hynix 20% 16% -30%
Elpida 15% 10% -29%
Qimonda 12% 6% -110%
Micron 12% -2% -57%
Crappy industry, stay 500 miles away!
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Disney and GE
Disney revenue and OP breakdown in USD
S 15bn OP 4.3bn OPM 29% TV and Cable broadcast
S 10.6bn OP 1.7bn OPM 16% Theme Park and Resorts
S 2.3bn OP 0.6bn OPM 26% Consumer Pdts
S 7.5bn OP 1.2bn OPM 16% Films
GE
40% of GE sales comes from GE Capital
S 15bn OP 4.3bn OPM 29% TV and Cable broadcast
S 10.6bn OP 1.7bn OPM 16% Theme Park and Resorts
S 2.3bn OP 0.6bn OPM 26% Consumer Pdts
S 7.5bn OP 1.2bn OPM 16% Films
GE
40% of GE sales comes from GE Capital
Monday, April 28, 2008
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Tuesday, April 22, 2008
China infrastructure spending breakdown
Water 30% USD 128bn
Power/grid 30% USD 128bn (70% Power plant 30% Power grid)
Highway 23%
Railway 8%
Urban Public Transport 3.6%
Port 3.7%
Airport 2%
Total USD 428bn
Power/grid 30% USD 128bn (70% Power plant 30% Power grid)
Highway 23%
Railway 8%
Urban Public Transport 3.6%
Port 3.7%
Airport 2%
Total USD 428bn
China FAI breakdown
Manufacturing 31%
Infrstructure/utilities/water/ environment 27%
Real estate 24%
Education/public admin/retail/other services 13%
Mining 4%
Primary industry 1%
Infrstructure/utilities/water/ environment 27%
Real estate 24%
Education/public admin/retail/other services 13%
Mining 4%
Primary industry 1%
Wednesday, April 16, 2008
Tuesday, April 15, 2008
Top 20 Asset Managers
In trn of USD
UBS 2.45 Sw
BGI 1.81 UK
SSG 1.75 US
AXA 1.74 FR
Alliance 1.71 Gr
Fidelity 1.64 US
Capital 1.4 US
Deutsche Grp 1.27 Gr
Vanguard 1.17 US
BlackRock 1.12 US
CS 1.09 Sw
JPM 1.01 US
BNP Paribas 0.82 Fr
ING 0.79 Holland
Natixis 0.77 Fr
AIG 0.73 US
C. Agricole 0.7 Fr
Aviva 0.7 UK
UBS 2.45 Sw
BGI 1.81 UK
SSG 1.75 US
AXA 1.74 FR
Alliance 1.71 Gr
Fidelity 1.64 US
Capital 1.4 US
Deutsche Grp 1.27 Gr
Vanguard 1.17 US
BlackRock 1.12 US
CS 1.09 Sw
JPM 1.01 US
BNP Paribas 0.82 Fr
ING 0.79 Holland
Natixis 0.77 Fr
AIG 0.73 US
C. Agricole 0.7 Fr
Aviva 0.7 UK
ETFs
Currently over 1000 ETFs with 700bn in AUM
Est to reach 2trn in 2011
Wisdom Tree
Runs ETFs based on fundamental factors (cash dvd, profits, sales etc)
Not by mkt cap
ETFs based on fundamental factors
Also known as active ETFs
but do they justift fees?
Est to reach 2trn in 2011
Wisdom Tree
Runs ETFs based on fundamental factors (cash dvd, profits, sales etc)
Not by mkt cap
ETFs based on fundamental factors
Also known as active ETFs
but do they justift fees?
Quant Funds
Major quant players
AQR
DE Shaw
Highbridge
Renaissance
They form a substantial portion of daily trading on NYSE
Conduct trades in milliseconds
Put computer servers closer to exchange to reduce time data takes to travel to exchange
GS Global Alpha lost 38% in 2007, all quant factors fail together - Black Swan
AQR
DE Shaw
Highbridge
Renaissance
They form a substantial portion of daily trading on NYSE
Conduct trades in milliseconds
Put computer servers closer to exchange to reduce time data takes to travel to exchange
GS Global Alpha lost 38% in 2007, all quant factors fail together - Black Swan
Monday, April 14, 2008
SGX daily trading value
SGD 1.97bn per day on average
SGD 2.37bn per day during Sep-Dec (bubblish period)
SGD 1.8bn May 08
SGD 2.37bn per day during Sep-Dec (bubblish period)
SGD 1.8bn May 08
Nuclear Warheads
Country Now 2012
US 3600 2200
Russia 3300 2200
Britain 160 160
France 350 300
China 200 200
India 60 70
Pakistan 50 60
Israel 200 200
Iran 2 10
North Korea 10 0?
US 3600 2200
Russia 3300 2200
Britain 160 160
France 350 300
China 200 200
India 60 70
Pakistan 50 60
Israel 200 200
Iran 2 10
North Korea 10 0?
Friday, April 11, 2008
Global GDP growth
2007
Global 5.1%
Industrial World 2.4%
US 2.2%
Europe 2.7%
Emerging Europe 6.0%
Japan 1.8%
Asia ex Japan 8.8%
China 11.3%
Global 5.1%
Industrial World 2.4%
US 2.2%
Europe 2.7%
Emerging Europe 6.0%
Japan 1.8%
Asia ex Japan 8.8%
China 11.3%
Tuesday, April 8, 2008
Global Pharma Industry
USD 600bn industry
50% US 30% EU 9% Japan
Biggest mkt players
Pfizer 9%
GSK 6%
Sanofi-Aventis 5.5%
Novartis 5%
other majors
Bristol-Meyer
Roche
Merck
AstraZeneca
Abbott
Johnson & Johnson
50% US 30% EU 9% Japan
Biggest mkt players
Pfizer 9%
GSK 6%
Sanofi-Aventis 5.5%
Novartis 5%
other majors
Bristol-Meyer
Roche
Merck
AstraZeneca
Abbott
Johnson & Johnson
Monday, April 7, 2008
Singapore Office Rent
2003 $4 psf per mth
2004 $4.2 psf per mth
2005 $6 psf per mth
2006 $8.5 psf per mth
2007 #13 psf per mth
2008 $16 psf per mth
Grade A 2008 Mar $18.7 psf per mth
2004 $4.2 psf per mth
2005 $6 psf per mth
2006 $8.5 psf per mth
2007 #13 psf per mth
2008 $16 psf per mth
Grade A 2008 Mar $18.7 psf per mth
Major consumer electronic pdt unit sales
PC 270mn
Notebook 107mn
iPod 55mn
LCD monitor 132mn
LCD TV 80mn
PDP TV 12mn
Mobile 1.2bn
DSC 126mn
HDD 500mn
Notebook 107mn
iPod 55mn
LCD monitor 132mn
LCD TV 80mn
PDP TV 12mn
Mobile 1.2bn
DSC 126mn
HDD 500mn
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Credit Cards in Sg
In 2005, there were about 4.45 million cards.
In January 2008, the number jumped to 5.72million.
The average spending per month of credit card-holders is rising:
from $3,755 in 2005
to $4,272 2997
figures from the Credit Bureau (Singapore) show.
Last December, the total amount of 'rollover' credit debt - when a card holder pays only the minimum allowed every month, carrying over the remainder to the following month - also hit a new high, crossing $3 billion for the first time.
In January 2008, the number jumped to 5.72million.
The average spending per month of credit card-holders is rising:
from $3,755 in 2005
to $4,272 2997
figures from the Credit Bureau (Singapore) show.
Last December, the total amount of 'rollover' credit debt - when a card holder pays only the minimum allowed every month, carrying over the remainder to the following month - also hit a new high, crossing $3 billion for the first time.
Wednesday, January 16, 2008
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